Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Monday, November 16, 2009
Give Rich Rod Time
One win in the Big Ten? Does that sound eerily familiar? To many Wolverine fans, this season does not appear to be a great improvement over the last. After a hot start defeating a now-pitiful ND team, and with another squeaker comeback win over 1-win IU, we're since winless against quality opponents. Our defense is one of the worst in the Big Ten, our offense can't seem to get into a rhythm, and for some reason we're bleeding points in the third quarter. The big question I keep on getting is, is this season an improvement over the last?
The answer is a resounding and thunderous YES! Follow up question, should Rich Rod be canned if we look similarly bad next year? The answer is a resounding and thunderous NO!
This season is a vast, vast improvement over the last one. Every game we've lost this year, we have had a shot at winning (save #10-ranked Penn State, where we got completely killed), but have fallen prey to the same issues. Those issues are freshman mistakes from our freshman quarterback, turnovers, penalties and a shallow (opposite of deep, right?) defense that is unable to buttress a sometimes dynamic, but oft inconsistent offense.
These are issues that RR cannot fix in one season. Let's start with the D, shall we? The D is playing poorly for several reasons. One is that we are severely lacking talent at key spots on D. Obi Ezeh our middle linebacker (the QB of the defense), simply isn't good enough. He constantly makes the wrong reads, has terrible instincts, and takes poor drops back into pass coverage. It is no surprise that this former 3-star running back recruit was benched for Kevin Leach (a walk on...) in the Purdue game. A walk on?!?! At MLB?!?! That's gotta say something. Speaking of walk-ons, we're starting another one, Jordan Kovacs, at safety. Kid plays hard and has great fundamentals, but he clearly has a lack of elite athleticism. He's starting because there is nobody else. Brandon Graham is obviously a monster, and will wipe his tears with his signing bonus. So he's an outlier. Don't even get me started on the horror that has been Mike Williams this season.
We do have talent though, the problem is that they are young and inexperienced. Craig Roh is playing phenomenally well for a freshman, and RVB and Mike Martin, who are only sophomores, have shown flashes of talent but are struggling to execute consistently. Big Will Campbell, 5-star freshman stud DL out of Detroit, clearly has a ways to go. These guys are all starting. Sheeeeeeesh. Talk about your bare cupboard! At least D Warren won't be leaving anytime soon, and we've got some help on the way at CB (though our latest 5-star CB to see the field is no longer on the team... whoops!). Always next year, right?
So let's see: lack of talent, lack of depth, loads of inexperience at key positions... ah wait, one more thing. Since our offense is so inconsistent and so prone to those gut wrenching 3 and outs, the defense is forced to be on the field for the entire game. No defense can play well when they're on the field that long. I'm actually amazed at how well our D has been playing after being forced to compensate for our shoddy O.
Also, people calling for GRob's head are completely nuts. The dude is a proven winner at multiple levels, just give him the tools. Besides, do you really want 4 D Coordinators in 4 years? Neither do I.
That's quite a hefty post already. Let me just touch on the offense briefly. It comes down to this: freshman QB's will make freshman mistakes, and that is exactly what is happening with Tate. Holding onto the ball too long is his key issue (as well as ball security, or lack thereof in Tate's case) but he will learn. Best thing about freshmen? They become sophomores. It's frustrating, yes, but you knew this day would come. Molk getting injured was also HUGE, as our O line didn't look like they had it together really with Moosman at center until the Purdue game.
Biggest problems for our O: inconsistent play, lack of execution, and PENALTIES and TURNOVERS. We've improved on all these issues as the season has gone along, but it is clear that our O is young and that they make mistakes. These issues too have their roots in inexperience, and should improve with time.
In summary: Be patient. Give RR time to bring in his players and develop them. This will take more time than we previously thought, but it will come. To put it plainly, winning will silence all the doubters. All RR needs to do is win, and all the boo-birds will fade into the crowd. If he can't get it done in a few years, then we can start talking about canning him. For now, just be patient.
Some Bullets:
-What has taken so long to get Roundtree out on the field? After a spectacular spring game, he disappeared. And people are surprised now that he's making plays. Sheeeeeeesh coaches!! Roundtree > Odoms.
-VINCENT SMITH!!!! (for anybody who hasn't watched a game with me, I have absolutely loved this kid since I saw his high school film)
-I like seeing that RR (or is it GRob?) is rotating some bodies in on D to try a few things. We've seen brief appearances from Kenny Demens and JB Fitzgerald (!!! Big fan of this kid too), and we even saw the journeyman Brandon Smith (#4) play a pretty big role on D in the Wisconsin game. He played well, I thought, for being new to the position just this year.
-I'm glad that Patrick Omameh beat out Dorrenstein. Kid is an absolute beast (and an engineer, to boot!), and we're seeing it on the field. Just wait til RS RG Q Washington sees the field next year, and you will see him DESTROY.
-What happened to Kevin Koger? It looks like he's regressed since the beginning of the season.
MEECH HOOPS = HOPE!!
The answer is a resounding and thunderous YES! Follow up question, should Rich Rod be canned if we look similarly bad next year? The answer is a resounding and thunderous NO!
This season is a vast, vast improvement over the last one. Every game we've lost this year, we have had a shot at winning (save #10-ranked Penn State, where we got completely killed), but have fallen prey to the same issues. Those issues are freshman mistakes from our freshman quarterback, turnovers, penalties and a shallow (opposite of deep, right?) defense that is unable to buttress a sometimes dynamic, but oft inconsistent offense.
These are issues that RR cannot fix in one season. Let's start with the D, shall we? The D is playing poorly for several reasons. One is that we are severely lacking talent at key spots on D. Obi Ezeh our middle linebacker (the QB of the defense), simply isn't good enough. He constantly makes the wrong reads, has terrible instincts, and takes poor drops back into pass coverage. It is no surprise that this former 3-star running back recruit was benched for Kevin Leach (a walk on...) in the Purdue game. A walk on?!?! At MLB?!?! That's gotta say something. Speaking of walk-ons, we're starting another one, Jordan Kovacs, at safety. Kid plays hard and has great fundamentals, but he clearly has a lack of elite athleticism. He's starting because there is nobody else. Brandon Graham is obviously a monster, and will wipe his tears with his signing bonus. So he's an outlier. Don't even get me started on the horror that has been Mike Williams this season.
We do have talent though, the problem is that they are young and inexperienced. Craig Roh is playing phenomenally well for a freshman, and RVB and Mike Martin, who are only sophomores, have shown flashes of talent but are struggling to execute consistently. Big Will Campbell, 5-star freshman stud DL out of Detroit, clearly has a ways to go. These guys are all starting. Sheeeeeeesh. Talk about your bare cupboard! At least D Warren won't be leaving anytime soon, and we've got some help on the way at CB (though our latest 5-star CB to see the field is no longer on the team... whoops!). Always next year, right?
So let's see: lack of talent, lack of depth, loads of inexperience at key positions... ah wait, one more thing. Since our offense is so inconsistent and so prone to those gut wrenching 3 and outs, the defense is forced to be on the field for the entire game. No defense can play well when they're on the field that long. I'm actually amazed at how well our D has been playing after being forced to compensate for our shoddy O.
Also, people calling for GRob's head are completely nuts. The dude is a proven winner at multiple levels, just give him the tools. Besides, do you really want 4 D Coordinators in 4 years? Neither do I.
That's quite a hefty post already. Let me just touch on the offense briefly. It comes down to this: freshman QB's will make freshman mistakes, and that is exactly what is happening with Tate. Holding onto the ball too long is his key issue (as well as ball security, or lack thereof in Tate's case) but he will learn. Best thing about freshmen? They become sophomores. It's frustrating, yes, but you knew this day would come. Molk getting injured was also HUGE, as our O line didn't look like they had it together really with Moosman at center until the Purdue game.
Biggest problems for our O: inconsistent play, lack of execution, and PENALTIES and TURNOVERS. We've improved on all these issues as the season has gone along, but it is clear that our O is young and that they make mistakes. These issues too have their roots in inexperience, and should improve with time.
In summary: Be patient. Give RR time to bring in his players and develop them. This will take more time than we previously thought, but it will come. To put it plainly, winning will silence all the doubters. All RR needs to do is win, and all the boo-birds will fade into the crowd. If he can't get it done in a few years, then we can start talking about canning him. For now, just be patient.
Some Bullets:
-What has taken so long to get Roundtree out on the field? After a spectacular spring game, he disappeared. And people are surprised now that he's making plays. Sheeeeeeesh coaches!! Roundtree > Odoms.
-VINCENT SMITH!!!! (for anybody who hasn't watched a game with me, I have absolutely loved this kid since I saw his high school film)
-I like seeing that RR (or is it GRob?) is rotating some bodies in on D to try a few things. We've seen brief appearances from Kenny Demens and JB Fitzgerald (!!! Big fan of this kid too), and we even saw the journeyman Brandon Smith (#4) play a pretty big role on D in the Wisconsin game. He played well, I thought, for being new to the position just this year.
-I'm glad that Patrick Omameh beat out Dorrenstein. Kid is an absolute beast (and an engineer, to boot!), and we're seeing it on the field. Just wait til RS RG Q Washington sees the field next year, and you will see him DESTROY.
-What happened to Kevin Koger? It looks like he's regressed since the beginning of the season.
MEECH HOOPS = HOPE!!
Friday, November 13, 2009
The Badgers Will Crush Michigan (Jinx!)
On the road at Camp Randall in mid-November against a bruising top 25 team surely means a beat-down for Big Blue, right?
Well, probably.
And now in Week 11 this team seems to be in full-blown disarray. Coach Rodriguez is planning on rotating more heavily on defense this Saturday (get ready for prime time, JT Floyd) and there are rumors being kicked around that Denard Robinson will get his first start.
The coaches pulled the plug on the Kevin Leach/JB Fitzgerald switcheroo that put starting LB's Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton on the bench against Purdue by the fourth quarter. Now it sounds like all four will be rotating in. For whatever reason none of the LB's seems capable of cementing themselves as THE starter. Leach looks quicker than Ezeh and puts himself into better position but Ezeh is bigger and better at shedding the big uglies that Wisconsin specializes in. Fitzgerald's emergence last week was surprising because I think Mouton has been a good performer this season. On the one hand I credit the coaches for not being complacent and continuing to search for the right combination on defense. On the other hand, did it take until Week 10 to realize our defense needed some kind of change?
Our safety play seems erratic at best. Mike Williams comes up with a nice play every once in a while, but he often seems to be involved in every play that you groan "Who missed that tackle?!" Jordan Kovacs looks like a good find but I think the novelty of a walk-on-turned starter is wearing off and he's being exposed a little bit more in recent weeks. Donovan Warren and Troy Woolfolk often look like the defensive secondary's most sure tacklers but the only backup in the secondary the coaches seem to want to use is Floyd, so if we see him this Saturday, does that mean Woolfolk plays a some safety?
The defensive line is generally a bright spot. Bright in that it looks better than the LB's or secondary. This is the only unit that sees plenty of rotating and it features our two best defensive players, Brandon Graham and Stevie Brown (I'm counting Brown as a D-lineman because he's been too good to lump him in the LB's and secondary). But if Brandon Graham doesn't get pressure on the QB, do you really believe someone else on the line will? I hope during practice this week Greg Robinson focused his young D-line on getting to the quarterback (let's try a few stunts!).
It's distressing that in Week 11 we're still searching answers on defense.
It's distressing that in Week 11 we're also still searching for answers on offense.
I think generally our offense "gets" RichRod's schemes. M scores a lot of points and often puts together scorched-earth drives, moving the ball at will. But in Week 11, who is our "go-to" receiver? Greg Mathews either seems the centerpiece of the passing game or the forgotten man. Martavious Odoms missed the last few weeks with a hurt knee. Junior Hemingway started off hot then missed a chunk of the middle season nursing an injury. Kelvin Grady appears to be off the depth chart. Roy Roundtree has emerged in recent weeks do we want the fate of our passing game in the hands of a redshirt freshman?
Speaking of "go-to" receiver, who do you trust to get us four yards on the ground in a crucial third down? Brandon Minor of course, but he's on an every-other week playing schedule with a chronically gimpy ankle. Is Carlos Brown the man? Sometimes. What about Michael Shaw or Vincent Smith? Despite occassional heavy doses of playing time they still look they're learning on the job. How about QB's Tate Forcier or Denard Robinson? If they hold onto the ball, maybe.
Scary that after so many weeks of play, we have lots of weapons but not any that an opposing defense should fear. Maybe that's partly out of design so other teams can't key on one or two playmakers, or maybe it's that none of our skill players are truly exceptional.
This brings me to the Denard Robinson conundrum. The talk is that he'll play a lot on Saturday, possibly even starting. That sound you hear is Michigan nation saying, "Huh?"
Robinson was a non-factor against Purdue or Illinois and hasn't played well since Delaware State...and even I played well against Delaware State. If he's showing lots of growth in practice, why didn't we see it during the last two games? His feet are still electric, but if the coaches expect him to come in and throw 15 times on Saturday, they should really think about how they've only called 22 passing plays for him the previous 10 weeks. This potential switch seems to be less about rewarding Robinson and more about punishing Forcier.
Why not put them both in the game at the same time?? By my count it's happened twice this season and everyone in the stadium (and a few people just passing by outside) knew the ball would be handed off to Robinson. Let's use our weapons to be creative. A reverse? A double pass? A flea flicker? I just came up with three awesome ideas if I do say so myself.
You'll notice I haven't said anything about Wisconsin yet. That's by design. There is too much about M to discuss. Everything we need to know about Wisconsin came in the first line of this blog: they are playing at home, they are in the top-25 and they are still a big, bruising Wisconsin team.
But maybe, just maybe Michigan will put out a shocking win (at this point, it would be a shocking win) on the road. Or maybe not. Or most certainly not.
Wisconsin 28-Michigan 17...but let's just hope I'm wrong like I've been consistently wrong for the last month.
Well, probably.
And now in Week 11 this team seems to be in full-blown disarray. Coach Rodriguez is planning on rotating more heavily on defense this Saturday (get ready for prime time, JT Floyd) and there are rumors being kicked around that Denard Robinson will get his first start.
The coaches pulled the plug on the Kevin Leach/JB Fitzgerald switcheroo that put starting LB's Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton on the bench against Purdue by the fourth quarter. Now it sounds like all four will be rotating in. For whatever reason none of the LB's seems capable of cementing themselves as THE starter. Leach looks quicker than Ezeh and puts himself into better position but Ezeh is bigger and better at shedding the big uglies that Wisconsin specializes in. Fitzgerald's emergence last week was surprising because I think Mouton has been a good performer this season. On the one hand I credit the coaches for not being complacent and continuing to search for the right combination on defense. On the other hand, did it take until Week 10 to realize our defense needed some kind of change?
Our safety play seems erratic at best. Mike Williams comes up with a nice play every once in a while, but he often seems to be involved in every play that you groan "Who missed that tackle?!" Jordan Kovacs looks like a good find but I think the novelty of a walk-on-turned starter is wearing off and he's being exposed a little bit more in recent weeks. Donovan Warren and Troy Woolfolk often look like the defensive secondary's most sure tacklers but the only backup in the secondary the coaches seem to want to use is Floyd, so if we see him this Saturday, does that mean Woolfolk plays a some safety?
The defensive line is generally a bright spot. Bright in that it looks better than the LB's or secondary. This is the only unit that sees plenty of rotating and it features our two best defensive players, Brandon Graham and Stevie Brown (I'm counting Brown as a D-lineman because he's been too good to lump him in the LB's and secondary). But if Brandon Graham doesn't get pressure on the QB, do you really believe someone else on the line will? I hope during practice this week Greg Robinson focused his young D-line on getting to the quarterback (let's try a few stunts!).
It's distressing that in Week 11 we're still searching answers on defense.
It's distressing that in Week 11 we're also still searching for answers on offense.
I think generally our offense "gets" RichRod's schemes. M scores a lot of points and often puts together scorched-earth drives, moving the ball at will. But in Week 11, who is our "go-to" receiver? Greg Mathews either seems the centerpiece of the passing game or the forgotten man. Martavious Odoms missed the last few weeks with a hurt knee. Junior Hemingway started off hot then missed a chunk of the middle season nursing an injury. Kelvin Grady appears to be off the depth chart. Roy Roundtree has emerged in recent weeks do we want the fate of our passing game in the hands of a redshirt freshman?
Speaking of "go-to" receiver, who do you trust to get us four yards on the ground in a crucial third down? Brandon Minor of course, but he's on an every-other week playing schedule with a chronically gimpy ankle. Is Carlos Brown the man? Sometimes. What about Michael Shaw or Vincent Smith? Despite occassional heavy doses of playing time they still look they're learning on the job. How about QB's Tate Forcier or Denard Robinson? If they hold onto the ball, maybe.
Scary that after so many weeks of play, we have lots of weapons but not any that an opposing defense should fear. Maybe that's partly out of design so other teams can't key on one or two playmakers, or maybe it's that none of our skill players are truly exceptional.
This brings me to the Denard Robinson conundrum. The talk is that he'll play a lot on Saturday, possibly even starting. That sound you hear is Michigan nation saying, "Huh?"
Robinson was a non-factor against Purdue or Illinois and hasn't played well since Delaware State...and even I played well against Delaware State. If he's showing lots of growth in practice, why didn't we see it during the last two games? His feet are still electric, but if the coaches expect him to come in and throw 15 times on Saturday, they should really think about how they've only called 22 passing plays for him the previous 10 weeks. This potential switch seems to be less about rewarding Robinson and more about punishing Forcier.
Why not put them both in the game at the same time?? By my count it's happened twice this season and everyone in the stadium (and a few people just passing by outside) knew the ball would be handed off to Robinson. Let's use our weapons to be creative. A reverse? A double pass? A flea flicker? I just came up with three awesome ideas if I do say so myself.
You'll notice I haven't said anything about Wisconsin yet. That's by design. There is too much about M to discuss. Everything we need to know about Wisconsin came in the first line of this blog: they are playing at home, they are in the top-25 and they are still a big, bruising Wisconsin team.
But maybe, just maybe Michigan will put out a shocking win (at this point, it would be a shocking win) on the road. Or maybe not. Or most certainly not.
Wisconsin 28-Michigan 17...but let's just hope I'm wrong like I've been consistently wrong for the last month.
Friday, October 30, 2009
On Paper (or in HTML) This One Is Over
I'd liken the season Illinois is putting together to Brandon Minor's chronic gimpy ankle, but that would be an insult to Minor's persistent limping.
Illinois is not just limping into this game, they are barely crawling in. The Fighting Illini are 1-6, winless in the Big Ten and generally give a bad name to all other teams described as being in "disarray."
Remember how they went to the Rose Bowl two seasons ago? Remember how Ron Zook was the Big Ten renaissance man and his teams were only going to get better given his SEC-mentality and recruiting roots? Ah, time really does fly.
How in the world did Juice Williams and Eddie McGee become the least potent 1-2 quarterback punch in the conference since Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan? And let's keep in mind that Williams and McGee were supposed to be stars, Threet and Sheridan were supposed to not die.
There are so many questions to ponder with this Illinois team and at this point in the season the most worrisome is to wonder if they can beat Michigan this Saturday?
They shouldn't and here's why: Illinois simply encourages teams to run on them. They are giving up 227 rushing yards per game in Big Ten play. Michigan will likely be without Brandon Minor and center David Molk is gone for the year, but the Wolverines should still increase that rushing average. With its stable of running backs (Carlos Brown is expected to play a lot on Saturday), Michigan could run for 250 - 300 yards against Illinois. Given that Michigan is playing only its third road game, expect them to run a lot to put Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson back into a comfort zone after a dreadful game against Penn State.
I know Michigan had fumble-itis last week against Penn State and did have trouble moving the football for about 30 minutes in the middle of the game, but the Fighting Illini will basically be inviting the Wolverines to run. Don't turn them down.
Offensively Illinois is a mess - they are only scoring 16 points a game. Considering Michigan scores more than 30 a game (yes I understand the Delaware State game skewed the average), the averages are on Michigan's side. Despite the Fighting Illini's inept offense, you've got to worry that its dormant weapons could catch fire against a weak Michigan secondary. Hopefully Brandon Graham will get to whichever QB Illinois trots out there before he can throw.
The big question is how Michigan will handle the road. It's shocking and a bit troubling that on October 31 Michigan is only playing it's THIRD road game. This goes to scheduling and Michigan's unwillingess to go on the road for non-conference games, and I think it does a disservice to the team.
But Michigan really has been in both of its road games (both losses) when it played Michigan State and Iowa - both which would be on the "greater than" side of a mathematical equation involving Illinois. This leads me to believe Michigan will finally put things together on the road against the hapless Juice & Co. and win their first road game.
By Saturday night Michigan will be bowl-eligible, will be 1-2 on the road and you'll be buzzing from either Halloween candy or Halloween booze.
Final score: Michigan 33, Illinois 21
Illinois is not just limping into this game, they are barely crawling in. The Fighting Illini are 1-6, winless in the Big Ten and generally give a bad name to all other teams described as being in "disarray."
Remember how they went to the Rose Bowl two seasons ago? Remember how Ron Zook was the Big Ten renaissance man and his teams were only going to get better given his SEC-mentality and recruiting roots? Ah, time really does fly.
How in the world did Juice Williams and Eddie McGee become the least potent 1-2 quarterback punch in the conference since Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan? And let's keep in mind that Williams and McGee were supposed to be stars, Threet and Sheridan were supposed to not die.
There are so many questions to ponder with this Illinois team and at this point in the season the most worrisome is to wonder if they can beat Michigan this Saturday?
They shouldn't and here's why: Illinois simply encourages teams to run on them. They are giving up 227 rushing yards per game in Big Ten play. Michigan will likely be without Brandon Minor and center David Molk is gone for the year, but the Wolverines should still increase that rushing average. With its stable of running backs (Carlos Brown is expected to play a lot on Saturday), Michigan could run for 250 - 300 yards against Illinois. Given that Michigan is playing only its third road game, expect them to run a lot to put Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson back into a comfort zone after a dreadful game against Penn State.
I know Michigan had fumble-itis last week against Penn State and did have trouble moving the football for about 30 minutes in the middle of the game, but the Fighting Illini will basically be inviting the Wolverines to run. Don't turn them down.
Offensively Illinois is a mess - they are only scoring 16 points a game. Considering Michigan scores more than 30 a game (yes I understand the Delaware State game skewed the average), the averages are on Michigan's side. Despite the Fighting Illini's inept offense, you've got to worry that its dormant weapons could catch fire against a weak Michigan secondary. Hopefully Brandon Graham will get to whichever QB Illinois trots out there before he can throw.
The big question is how Michigan will handle the road. It's shocking and a bit troubling that on October 31 Michigan is only playing it's THIRD road game. This goes to scheduling and Michigan's unwillingess to go on the road for non-conference games, and I think it does a disservice to the team.
But Michigan really has been in both of its road games (both losses) when it played Michigan State and Iowa - both which would be on the "greater than" side of a mathematical equation involving Illinois. This leads me to believe Michigan will finally put things together on the road against the hapless Juice & Co. and win their first road game.
By Saturday night Michigan will be bowl-eligible, will be 1-2 on the road and you'll be buzzing from either Halloween candy or Halloween booze.
Final score: Michigan 33, Illinois 21
Friday, October 2, 2009
Committing to Making a Non-Commitment for This Rivalry Game
Will you at least give me a three step head start?
I’m going to need it to run away from the mobs of angry Wolverine fans after they read this: Michigan State should win this game and they probably will...but it's definitely not even close to being a sure thing.
Before last Saturday’s debacle against Wisconsin (not to mention the blown game against Notre Dame and the embarrassing, mistake-filled loss to Central Michigan) I would’ve have written Michigan State will win this game. But that all changed now that the Spartans are limping into this game with a 1-3 record and the clouds of failed seasons past are beginning to gather overhead.
Let’s take a look at this game realistically: no one expected the Spartans to be this bad coming into Week 5 and no one expected the Wolverines to be this good. You are simply lying to yourself if you thought otherwise.
Combine those two factors with the Spartans home field advantage and I think you’ll reach the same flimsy conclusion I did: the Spartans should win this game, but they might not.
Now for the why.
The one thing that should be staring everyone in the face is that MSU will be DESPERATE to win this game. Mark Dantonio’s career might depend on it. If he doesn’t win this game and the Spartans drop to 1-4, MSU will lose public support faster than Kanye West.
MSU players can’t stand the fact that they are coming into this game at 1-3 (although they didn’t seem to care enough in their previous three games to actually try and win them) and they hate that Michigan is 4-0. These Spartans want to be the team that brings Michigan back to earth. They will be motivated and will be fired up by a home crowd that last saw the boys when they were 1-1.
The Spartans can move the ball through the air – they threw for nearly 400 yards last week against Wisconsin. Blair White and Mark Dell are very good receives and BJ Cunningham provides another game-breaker. The problem is who will get them ball. This might not be the game for Dantonio to keep the two QB experiment going. MSU needs to air it out against Michigan’s soft secondary to win this game. That means keeping Keith “Crazy Legs” Nichol on the bench in favor of Kirk Cousins.
Just like USC, the Spartans have a stable of backs. Unlike USC, none of them are very good. If the Spartans are forced to run the ball they will be in for a long game.
If the Spartans go after Michigan through the air, they should put enought points on the board to outscore the Wolverines.
This brings me to the “X-factor” and I’m not talking about whether or not Denard Robinson will tie his shoes…I’m talking about THE WEATHER.
The forecast is calling for rain and lots of it. That should favor the Wolverines for two reasons: 1) it will limit the Spartans ability to throw and 2) it will limit the Wolverines ability to throw – and that means letting Brandon Minor, Carlos Brown, Michael Shaw, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson will be running wild (that’s assuming David Moosman can get the snaps to Forcier and Robinson – a very real fear I pointed out in an earlier column).
Michigan averages 240 yards per game on the ground. Michigan State gives up 113 yards per game but has not seen a rushing attack like the Wolverines have. If the pass game is neutralized for both teams, the edge has to go to Michigan.
Also don’t be surprised if Forcier gets banged up and the Wolverines insert Nick Sheridan into the game. This is the Wolverines first road game and if the weather is bad, the coaching staff might turn to the veteran to simply hand the ball off.
Bad weather will also affect the Spartans’ kicking game. MSU Brett Swenson will be the best kicker on the field (he might be State’s best player) but lots of wind and rain could create problems for thim.
You may be asking yourself – why haven’t we discussed the either team’s defense? For the simple reason that neither team plays defense. This game is all about which offense shows up and which offense handles the elements.
I don’t even have the guts to make a prediction on this game but I will…sort of.
Non-tsunami weather: Michigan State 37 – Michigan 35
Tsunami weather: Michigan 31 – Michigan State 24
I’m going to need it to run away from the mobs of angry Wolverine fans after they read this: Michigan State should win this game and they probably will...but it's definitely not even close to being a sure thing.
Before last Saturday’s debacle against Wisconsin (not to mention the blown game against Notre Dame and the embarrassing, mistake-filled loss to Central Michigan) I would’ve have written Michigan State will win this game. But that all changed now that the Spartans are limping into this game with a 1-3 record and the clouds of failed seasons past are beginning to gather overhead.
Let’s take a look at this game realistically: no one expected the Spartans to be this bad coming into Week 5 and no one expected the Wolverines to be this good. You are simply lying to yourself if you thought otherwise.
Combine those two factors with the Spartans home field advantage and I think you’ll reach the same flimsy conclusion I did: the Spartans should win this game, but they might not.
Now for the why.
The one thing that should be staring everyone in the face is that MSU will be DESPERATE to win this game. Mark Dantonio’s career might depend on it. If he doesn’t win this game and the Spartans drop to 1-4, MSU will lose public support faster than Kanye West.
MSU players can’t stand the fact that they are coming into this game at 1-3 (although they didn’t seem to care enough in their previous three games to actually try and win them) and they hate that Michigan is 4-0. These Spartans want to be the team that brings Michigan back to earth. They will be motivated and will be fired up by a home crowd that last saw the boys when they were 1-1.
The Spartans can move the ball through the air – they threw for nearly 400 yards last week against Wisconsin. Blair White and Mark Dell are very good receives and BJ Cunningham provides another game-breaker. The problem is who will get them ball. This might not be the game for Dantonio to keep the two QB experiment going. MSU needs to air it out against Michigan’s soft secondary to win this game. That means keeping Keith “Crazy Legs” Nichol on the bench in favor of Kirk Cousins.
Just like USC, the Spartans have a stable of backs. Unlike USC, none of them are very good. If the Spartans are forced to run the ball they will be in for a long game.
If the Spartans go after Michigan through the air, they should put enought points on the board to outscore the Wolverines.
This brings me to the “X-factor” and I’m not talking about whether or not Denard Robinson will tie his shoes…I’m talking about THE WEATHER.
The forecast is calling for rain and lots of it. That should favor the Wolverines for two reasons: 1) it will limit the Spartans ability to throw and 2) it will limit the Wolverines ability to throw – and that means letting Brandon Minor, Carlos Brown, Michael Shaw, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson will be running wild (that’s assuming David Moosman can get the snaps to Forcier and Robinson – a very real fear I pointed out in an earlier column).
Michigan averages 240 yards per game on the ground. Michigan State gives up 113 yards per game but has not seen a rushing attack like the Wolverines have. If the pass game is neutralized for both teams, the edge has to go to Michigan.
Also don’t be surprised if Forcier gets banged up and the Wolverines insert Nick Sheridan into the game. This is the Wolverines first road game and if the weather is bad, the coaching staff might turn to the veteran to simply hand the ball off.
Bad weather will also affect the Spartans’ kicking game. MSU Brett Swenson will be the best kicker on the field (he might be State’s best player) but lots of wind and rain could create problems for thim.
You may be asking yourself – why haven’t we discussed the either team’s defense? For the simple reason that neither team plays defense. This game is all about which offense shows up and which offense handles the elements.
I don’t even have the guts to make a prediction on this game but I will…sort of.
Non-tsunami weather: Michigan State 37 – Michigan 35
Tsunami weather: Michigan 31 – Michigan State 24
sPARTY showdown
This should be an interesting, if not completely gut-wrenching, game.
As expected, Michigan has shown flashes of brilliance mixed with flashes of frustration. They have played up to defeat Notre Dame, but they let EMU and IU run all over our thin and inexperienced D. Thus far, though, when the chips are down, Michigan has come through.
The only consistency we have had is that we have been exposed as being unable to stop even the most meager rushing attack. Thankfully we're playing an MSU team that doesn't feature Javon Ringer (or Jehuu Caulcrick!), and has already had swift reminders in this young season of why they're Michigan State: critical dropped balls, late game meltdowns, losing to directional Michigan, you get the picture. But I will join the pundits in saying that this is a very, very good 1-3 team and they certainly are good enough to beat Michigan (heck, IU was almost good enough!).
MSU's quarterback carousel has firmly landed on Kirk Cousins to start, and he is no slouch. He beat out the Oklahoma transfer Keith Nichol, who is very good in his own right (As an aside, boy I bet Oklahoma still wishes they had that guy). and he has all the physical tools of a good QB. MSU also has a great passing attack, probably the second best we'll see all year next to ND's. Blair White is probably the heir to the MSU NFL WR throne (As another aside: Charles Rogers is NOT doing great and Plax is in jail. That's why you're MSU). They also have another good WR in Dell, who has made some clutch plays this season.
Look for MSU to go straight at the corner who is not named Donovan Warren. Early, often. With anybody who can strap on a pair of cleats having 100-yard rushing games on our D, combined with a potent pass offense, look for this game to be a high scoring one. Let's keep our fingers crossed, and hope that this year we can put little brother back where he belongs.
Go Blue, friends.
As expected, Michigan has shown flashes of brilliance mixed with flashes of frustration. They have played up to defeat Notre Dame, but they let EMU and IU run all over our thin and inexperienced D. Thus far, though, when the chips are down, Michigan has come through.
The only consistency we have had is that we have been exposed as being unable to stop even the most meager rushing attack. Thankfully we're playing an MSU team that doesn't feature Javon Ringer (or Jehuu Caulcrick!), and has already had swift reminders in this young season of why they're Michigan State: critical dropped balls, late game meltdowns, losing to directional Michigan, you get the picture. But I will join the pundits in saying that this is a very, very good 1-3 team and they certainly are good enough to beat Michigan (heck, IU was almost good enough!).
MSU's quarterback carousel has firmly landed on Kirk Cousins to start, and he is no slouch. He beat out the Oklahoma transfer Keith Nichol, who is very good in his own right (As an aside, boy I bet Oklahoma still wishes they had that guy). and he has all the physical tools of a good QB. MSU also has a great passing attack, probably the second best we'll see all year next to ND's. Blair White is probably the heir to the MSU NFL WR throne (As another aside: Charles Rogers is NOT doing great and Plax is in jail. That's why you're MSU). They also have another good WR in Dell, who has made some clutch plays this season.
Look for MSU to go straight at the corner who is not named Donovan Warren. Early, often. With anybody who can strap on a pair of cleats having 100-yard rushing games on our D, combined with a potent pass offense, look for this game to be a high scoring one. Let's keep our fingers crossed, and hope that this year we can put little brother back where he belongs.
Go Blue, friends.
Friday, September 25, 2009
The Amazingly Anonymous Hoosiers Shooting For Respect
You have three seconds to answer this question - and no, you can't phone a friend and you can't use Google - who is the head football coach at Indiana University?
Didn't get it? You're probably not the only one.
The answer is Bill Lynch and he's in his third year at the helm of the Hoosiers.
But don't beat yourself up about it - Michigan hasn't played the Hoosiers since a 34-3 spanking in Bloomington in 2006 but there's a bigger reason at play: over the last decade Indiana has made its football program into arguably the most anonymous program in the Big Ten.
Not since Antwaan Randle-El graduated in 2002 have the Hoosiers had a truly "marquee player" who receives national attention (he finished sixth in Heisman voting that year). Here are some other interesting facts: Indiana's last visit to the Rose Bowl was in 1968, the last time they finished a season in the AP Top 25 was 1988 (20), and they did not play in bowl game from 1994-2006.
It's also fairly easy for Michigan fans to ignore Indiana because the all-time series sits at 50-9 (not in favor of the Hoosiers), Michigan hasn't lost to the Hoosiers since 1987 and last lost to the Hoosiers at home in 1967.
That being said Bill Lynch does have this Hoosiers team at 3-0 coming into play at Michigan Stadium this Saturday. But - and there's always a "but" - those wins are over Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan and Akron. Now I know what any Michigan haters are saying, other than Notre Dame Michigan has played two MAC teams!
Indiana beat Eastern Kentucky by 6, WMU by 4 and Akron by 17.
Michigan beat WMU by 24, ND by 4 and Eastern Michigan by 28.
Clearly, though, M cannot take any opponent lightly - especially not the Big Ten opener. Indiana is hungry to go 4-0 and to wipe the smiles off of all M fans across the country. Michigan is suddenly a media darling again (see Sports Illustrated's September 21 issue) and all Michigan fans are salivating for a 12-0 season (realistic fans are still salivating for a 7-5 season).
Indiana will bring in the "Pistol" formation on offense. It's like a shortened shotgun formation where the QB stands back from the centers a few yards and the RB remains behind the QB. The Pistol theoretically helps the QB and RB read the running game, especially on the interior of the line.
Will this unorthodox look foul up M's defense? It's really anyone's guess when it comes to the "bend don't break" defense M has been running out so far through three games.
On defense the Hoosiers have a pair of bona fide pass rushers: Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton have combined for 40 sacks in their careers at Indiana. This will surely put pressure on M's freshman QB and a line that's been reshuffled because of C David Molk's injury. Expect them to get to Tate Forcier, but let's hope M can counter their pressure with some timely draw plays to Brandon Minor and Michael Shaw and some screens to Carlos Brown. I would also like to see TE Kevin Koger to reestablish himself this week after the passing game basically took the EMU game off.
I fully expect Indiana to put some points on the board, but Michigan is averaging 38 points a game and the Wolverines will outscore the Hoosiers.
Michigan 35, Indiana 21.
Michigan will surpass it's 2008 win total in one month of the 2009 season...the Hoosiers will remain largely anonymous at least this week.
Didn't get it? You're probably not the only one.
The answer is Bill Lynch and he's in his third year at the helm of the Hoosiers.
But don't beat yourself up about it - Michigan hasn't played the Hoosiers since a 34-3 spanking in Bloomington in 2006 but there's a bigger reason at play: over the last decade Indiana has made its football program into arguably the most anonymous program in the Big Ten.
Not since Antwaan Randle-El graduated in 2002 have the Hoosiers had a truly "marquee player" who receives national attention (he finished sixth in Heisman voting that year). Here are some other interesting facts: Indiana's last visit to the Rose Bowl was in 1968, the last time they finished a season in the AP Top 25 was 1988 (20), and they did not play in bowl game from 1994-2006.
It's also fairly easy for Michigan fans to ignore Indiana because the all-time series sits at 50-9 (not in favor of the Hoosiers), Michigan hasn't lost to the Hoosiers since 1987 and last lost to the Hoosiers at home in 1967.
That being said Bill Lynch does have this Hoosiers team at 3-0 coming into play at Michigan Stadium this Saturday. But - and there's always a "but" - those wins are over Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan and Akron. Now I know what any Michigan haters are saying, other than Notre Dame Michigan has played two MAC teams!
Indiana beat Eastern Kentucky by 6, WMU by 4 and Akron by 17.
Michigan beat WMU by 24, ND by 4 and Eastern Michigan by 28.
Clearly, though, M cannot take any opponent lightly - especially not the Big Ten opener. Indiana is hungry to go 4-0 and to wipe the smiles off of all M fans across the country. Michigan is suddenly a media darling again (see Sports Illustrated's September 21 issue) and all Michigan fans are salivating for a 12-0 season (realistic fans are still salivating for a 7-5 season).
Indiana will bring in the "Pistol" formation on offense. It's like a shortened shotgun formation where the QB stands back from the centers a few yards and the RB remains behind the QB. The Pistol theoretically helps the QB and RB read the running game, especially on the interior of the line.
Will this unorthodox look foul up M's defense? It's really anyone's guess when it comes to the "bend don't break" defense M has been running out so far through three games.
On defense the Hoosiers have a pair of bona fide pass rushers: Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton have combined for 40 sacks in their careers at Indiana. This will surely put pressure on M's freshman QB and a line that's been reshuffled because of C David Molk's injury. Expect them to get to Tate Forcier, but let's hope M can counter their pressure with some timely draw plays to Brandon Minor and Michael Shaw and some screens to Carlos Brown. I would also like to see TE Kevin Koger to reestablish himself this week after the passing game basically took the EMU game off.
I fully expect Indiana to put some points on the board, but Michigan is averaging 38 points a game and the Wolverines will outscore the Hoosiers.
Michigan 35, Indiana 21.
Michigan will surpass it's 2008 win total in one month of the 2009 season...the Hoosiers will remain largely anonymous at least this week.
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