Friday, October 30, 2009

On Paper (or in HTML) This One Is Over

I'd liken the season Illinois is putting together to Brandon Minor's chronic gimpy ankle, but that would be an insult to Minor's persistent limping.

Illinois is not just limping into this game, they are barely crawling in. The Fighting Illini are 1-6, winless in the Big Ten and generally give a bad name to all other teams described as being in "disarray."

Remember how they went to the Rose Bowl two seasons ago? Remember how Ron Zook was the Big Ten renaissance man and his teams were only going to get better given his SEC-mentality and recruiting roots? Ah, time really does fly.

How in the world did Juice Williams and Eddie McGee become the least potent 1-2 quarterback punch in the conference since Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan? And let's keep in mind that Williams and McGee were supposed to be stars, Threet and Sheridan were supposed to not die.

There are so many questions to ponder with this Illinois team and at this point in the season the most worrisome is to wonder if they can beat Michigan this Saturday?

They shouldn't and here's why: Illinois simply encourages teams to run on them. They are giving up 227 rushing yards per game in Big Ten play. Michigan will likely be without Brandon Minor and center David Molk is gone for the year, but the Wolverines should still increase that rushing average. With its stable of running backs (Carlos Brown is expected to play a lot on Saturday), Michigan could run for 250 - 300 yards against Illinois. Given that Michigan is playing only its third road game, expect them to run a lot to put Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson back into a comfort zone after a dreadful game against Penn State.

I know Michigan had fumble-itis last week against Penn State and did have trouble moving the football for about 30 minutes in the middle of the game, but the Fighting Illini will basically be inviting the Wolverines to run. Don't turn them down.

Offensively Illinois is a mess - they are only scoring 16 points a game. Considering Michigan scores more than 30 a game (yes I understand the Delaware State game skewed the average), the averages are on Michigan's side. Despite the Fighting Illini's inept offense, you've got to worry that its dormant weapons could catch fire against a weak Michigan secondary. Hopefully Brandon Graham will get to whichever QB Illinois trots out there before he can throw.

The big question is how Michigan will handle the road. It's shocking and a bit troubling that on October 31 Michigan is only playing it's THIRD road game. This goes to scheduling and Michigan's unwillingess to go on the road for non-conference games, and I think it does a disservice to the team.

But Michigan really has been in both of its road games (both losses) when it played Michigan State and Iowa - both which would be on the "greater than" side of a mathematical equation involving Illinois. This leads me to believe Michigan will finally put things together on the road against the hapless Juice & Co. and win their first road game.

By Saturday night Michigan will be bowl-eligible, will be 1-2 on the road and you'll be buzzing from either Halloween candy or Halloween booze.

Final score: Michigan 33, Illinois 21

Friday, October 2, 2009

Committing to Making a Non-Commitment for This Rivalry Game

Will you at least give me a three step head start?

I’m going to need it to run away from the mobs of angry Wolverine fans after they read this: Michigan State should win this game and they probably will...but it's definitely not even close to being a sure thing.

Before last Saturday’s debacle against Wisconsin (not to mention the blown game against Notre Dame and the embarrassing, mistake-filled loss to Central Michigan) I would’ve have written Michigan State will win this game. But that all changed now that the Spartans are limping into this game with a 1-3 record and the clouds of failed seasons past are beginning to gather overhead.

Let’s take a look at this game realistically: no one expected the Spartans to be this bad coming into Week 5 and no one expected the Wolverines to be this good. You are simply lying to yourself if you thought otherwise.

Combine those two factors with the Spartans home field advantage and I think you’ll reach the same flimsy conclusion I did: the Spartans should win this game, but they might not.

Now for the why.

The one thing that should be staring everyone in the face is that MSU will be DESPERATE to win this game. Mark Dantonio’s career might depend on it. If he doesn’t win this game and the Spartans drop to 1-4, MSU will lose public support faster than Kanye West.

MSU players can’t stand the fact that they are coming into this game at 1-3 (although they didn’t seem to care enough in their previous three games to actually try and win them) and they hate that Michigan is 4-0. These Spartans want to be the team that brings Michigan back to earth. They will be motivated and will be fired up by a home crowd that last saw the boys when they were 1-1.

The Spartans can move the ball through the air – they threw for nearly 400 yards last week against Wisconsin. Blair White and Mark Dell are very good receives and BJ Cunningham provides another game-breaker. The problem is who will get them ball. This might not be the game for Dantonio to keep the two QB experiment going. MSU needs to air it out against Michigan’s soft secondary to win this game. That means keeping Keith “Crazy Legs” Nichol on the bench in favor of Kirk Cousins.

Just like USC, the Spartans have a stable of backs. Unlike USC, none of them are very good. If the Spartans are forced to run the ball they will be in for a long game.

If the Spartans go after Michigan through the air, they should put enought points on the board to outscore the Wolverines.

This brings me to the “X-factor” and I’m not talking about whether or not Denard Robinson will tie his shoes…I’m talking about THE WEATHER.

The forecast is calling for rain and lots of it. That should favor the Wolverines for two reasons: 1) it will limit the Spartans ability to throw and 2) it will limit the Wolverines ability to throw – and that means letting Brandon Minor, Carlos Brown, Michael Shaw, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson will be running wild (that’s assuming David Moosman can get the snaps to Forcier and Robinson – a very real fear I pointed out in an earlier column).

Michigan averages 240 yards per game on the ground. Michigan State gives up 113 yards per game but has not seen a rushing attack like the Wolverines have. If the pass game is neutralized for both teams, the edge has to go to Michigan.

Also don’t be surprised if Forcier gets banged up and the Wolverines insert Nick Sheridan into the game. This is the Wolverines first road game and if the weather is bad, the coaching staff might turn to the veteran to simply hand the ball off.

Bad weather will also affect the Spartans’ kicking game. MSU Brett Swenson will be the best kicker on the field (he might be State’s best player) but lots of wind and rain could create problems for thim.

You may be asking yourself – why haven’t we discussed the either team’s defense? For the simple reason that neither team plays defense. This game is all about which offense shows up and which offense handles the elements.

I don’t even have the guts to make a prediction on this game but I will…sort of.

Non-tsunami weather: Michigan State 37 – Michigan 35

Tsunami weather: Michigan 31 – Michigan State 24

sPARTY showdown

This should be an interesting, if not completely gut-wrenching, game.

As expected, Michigan has shown flashes of brilliance mixed with flashes of frustration. They have played up to defeat Notre Dame, but they let EMU and IU run all over our thin and inexperienced D. Thus far, though, when the chips are down, Michigan has come through.

The only consistency we have had is that we have been exposed as being unable to stop even the most meager rushing attack. Thankfully we're playing an MSU team that doesn't feature Javon Ringer (or Jehuu Caulcrick!), and has already had swift reminders in this young season of why they're Michigan State: critical dropped balls, late game meltdowns, losing to directional Michigan, you get the picture. But I will join the pundits in saying that this is a very, very good 1-3 team and they certainly are good enough to beat Michigan (heck, IU was almost good enough!).

MSU's quarterback carousel has firmly landed on Kirk Cousins to start, and he is no slouch. He beat out the Oklahoma transfer Keith Nichol, who is very good in his own right (As an aside, boy I bet Oklahoma still wishes they had that guy). and he has all the physical tools of a good QB. MSU also has a great passing attack, probably the second best we'll see all year next to ND's. Blair White is probably the heir to the MSU NFL WR throne (As another aside: Charles Rogers is NOT doing great and Plax is in jail. That's why you're MSU). They also have another good WR in Dell, who has made some clutch plays this season.

Look for MSU to go straight at the corner who is not named Donovan Warren. Early, often. With anybody who can strap on a pair of cleats having 100-yard rushing games on our D, combined with a potent pass offense, look for this game to be a high scoring one. Let's keep our fingers crossed, and hope that this year we can put little brother back where he belongs.

Go Blue, friends.

Friday, September 25, 2009

The Amazingly Anonymous Hoosiers Shooting For Respect

You have three seconds to answer this question - and no, you can't phone a friend and you can't use Google - who is the head football coach at Indiana University?

Didn't get it? You're probably not the only one.

The answer is Bill Lynch and he's in his third year at the helm of the Hoosiers.

But don't beat yourself up about it - Michigan hasn't played the Hoosiers since a 34-3 spanking in Bloomington in 2006 but there's a bigger reason at play: over the last decade Indiana has made its football program into arguably the most anonymous program in the Big Ten.

Not since Antwaan Randle-El graduated in 2002 have the Hoosiers had a truly "marquee player" who receives national attention (he finished sixth in Heisman voting that year). Here are some other interesting facts: Indiana's last visit to the Rose Bowl was in 1968, the last time they finished a season in the AP Top 25 was 1988 (20), and they did not play in bowl game from 1994-2006.

It's also fairly easy for Michigan fans to ignore Indiana because the all-time series sits at 50-9 (not in favor of the Hoosiers), Michigan hasn't lost to the Hoosiers since 1987 and last lost to the Hoosiers at home in 1967.

That being said Bill Lynch does have this Hoosiers team at 3-0 coming into play at Michigan Stadium this Saturday. But - and there's always a "but" - those wins are over Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan and Akron. Now I know what any Michigan haters are saying, other than Notre Dame Michigan has played two MAC teams!

Indiana beat Eastern Kentucky by 6, WMU by 4 and Akron by 17.

Michigan beat WMU by 24, ND by 4 and Eastern Michigan by 28.

Clearly, though, M cannot take any opponent lightly - especially not the Big Ten opener. Indiana is hungry to go 4-0 and to wipe the smiles off of all M fans across the country. Michigan is suddenly a media darling again (see Sports Illustrated's September 21 issue) and all Michigan fans are salivating for a 12-0 season (realistic fans are still salivating for a 7-5 season).

Indiana will bring in the "Pistol" formation on offense. It's like a shortened shotgun formation where the QB stands back from the centers a few yards and the RB remains behind the QB. The Pistol theoretically helps the QB and RB read the running game, especially on the interior of the line.

Will this unorthodox look foul up M's defense? It's really anyone's guess when it comes to the "bend don't break" defense M has been running out so far through three games.

On defense the Hoosiers have a pair of bona fide pass rushers: Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton have combined for 40 sacks in their careers at Indiana. This will surely put pressure on M's freshman QB and a line that's been reshuffled because of C David Molk's injury. Expect them to get to Tate Forcier, but let's hope M can counter their pressure with some timely draw plays to Brandon Minor and Michael Shaw and some screens to Carlos Brown. I would also like to see TE Kevin Koger to reestablish himself this week after the passing game basically took the EMU game off.

I fully expect Indiana to put some points on the board, but Michigan is averaging 38 points a game and the Wolverines will outscore the Hoosiers.

Michigan 35, Indiana 21.

Michigan will surpass it's 2008 win total in one month of the 2009 season...the Hoosiers will remain largely anonymous at least this week.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Crying Over Spilled Molk

I'm getting a little nervous...

Center David Molk is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a broken foot. This news is very worrisome to me. I consider Molk the most consistent offensive lineman for M in the RichRod era. Center is a thinking man's position that requires a lot of communication with the four other lineman and quarterback to adjust blocking assignments at the line - and I think Molk has done it very well in the past 15 games.

I will be interested to see how Tate Forcier does without Molk in there - a good center/quarterback relationship can really contribute to a solid offense. Michigan's running game seems to be developing nicely and it always helps to keep your offensive line consistent. Guard David Moosman missed the EMU game and M survived (some would even say thrived) but I never like to see musical chairs on the offensive line.

Am I just being an alarmist here?

Any other early-in-the-week thoughts about the upcoming Big Ten opener against Indiana?

One other note...the Big Ten Network claimed the Michigan-Michigan State game as its headliner for Saturday, October 3 at Noon. I can't say I'm thrilled about that scheduling. Frankly I like noon starts (and for this game it will give all those Spartans fans less time to drink before the game - I hope) but the Michigan/MSU game should be more of a marqee event...and that usually means a 3:30 start.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Carleton Brundidge a Wolverine!


Michigan received its first 2011 commitment today from Southfield PG Carleton Brundidge. Brundidge is consensus top 100 for 2011, and is viewed by many (many wolverine fans, that is) as the best player in a deep 2011 class in the state of Michigan.

For more on Brundidge, check out the UM Hoops commit article.

This is a huge pickup for Beilein and co for many reasons. A constant knock on Beilein is that he is purely a system coach who cannot recruit top talent. Bogus. Another is that he is unable to recruit the talent-rich state of Michigan. Bogus again. This commitment puts a lot of pressure on the two remaining top candidates, both very highly rated wings, left for 2010: Trey Zeigler (Mount Pleasant, MI) and Casey Prather (Memphis, TN). Meech being scholarship strapped, it also puts pressure on top ranked 2011 MI wing Brandon Kearney to compete for the highly-coveted remaining wing opening. If any one of these kids ends up committing, we've got ourselves a very talented future wing at U of M. If none does, there's plenty of other top-ranked talent with Meech love, so it's a win-win.

Huge, huge, huge pickup for John Beilein and co. The future looks bright for the U of M basketball program. If you don't follow Meech basketball by now, you certainly should.

Links
-Devin Gardner does NOT want to redshirt. He wants to play NOW!
-The Michigan Daily actually wrote a piece worth reading last week. Not just surprisingly good, but I would go as far to say that it's excellent. The subject of the article is Pahokee, home of Martavious Odoms, Brandin Hawthorne and Vincent Smith.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Quick Report Card...

A few quick thoughts on today...

First and foremost a hearty welcome to "MK" to our humble sports blog.

Denard Robinson threw the ball a few times today, with at least one of them being a deep pass. Unfortunately, he threw 2 INT's which were both a product of his poor decision making. The bullet he threw to Odoms (that was incomplete) was a bullet right on target, which gives us some hope. He seems to be more comfortable and accurate throwing on the run than he is with his feet planted. Interesting that they might use that to our advantage in certain bootleg and play action plays. He is clearly still a work in progress when it comes to the passing game, but he shows promise.

That being said... he is a sick sick sick sick sick runner. His ability to make something out of nothing is really remarkable. He is very exciting to watch, and is a spark to our offense.

Tate Forcier looked just okay today. He made some questionable judgement calls holding on to the ball too long, which is to be expected with a freshman QB. But it sure was scary when he went down in the 3rd quarter. He seems to be ok, but the really impressive thing was his clear desire to want to get right back into the game. Gotta love the heart.

The receivers today looked pretty good, although we barely threw the ball all day. I would love to see us utilize the tight end in the middle of the field more, especially on QB rollouts (see: Denard Robinson. Although Tate would be great at this as well).

Carlos Brown seemed to step up huge today. Part of this is a product of our offensive line just man handling their d-line, but Carlos still looked pretty good. Michael Shaw also had a few good looking runs, including a few ankle breakers. They should both compliment Brandon Minor well for the rest of the season.

Our d-line looked fairly good, however they were mostly matched up against a mediocre o-line. That being said, Craig Roh is going to be a nasty player when he develops further.

Linebackers played meh, and Ezeh is consistently out of position to make plays. It bothers me that we have no one else better than him on the depth chart. I know he is a great athlete but his positioning routinely scares me. As we enter Big Ten season, it will be interesting to see how they match up against the run.

Secondary was ok today. Donovan played well, but that shoulder injury is clearly still bothering Boubacar. He can't press at the line, and he has trouble being physical with the receivers. Hopefully he will be better when it comes time to play against MSU etc... Safety play is much better, save for a few mental errors by Woolfolk and others, and Stevie Brown actually looks like a football player in his new position.

All in all, not too impressive of a win, but we got the job done and I guess that is what counts. Looking forward to starting the Big Ten season off with a win.