The King is Dead, Long Live the King

In a simply amazing display of grit and skill, the 6th ranked man in the world, Juan Martin Del Potro, did what no one before him could; beat Roger Federer in a U.S. Open Final. After being down 2 sets to 1 and a break in the fourth, Del Potro stormed back courtesy of a monster forehand to secure a 3-6, 7-6, 4-6, 7-6, 6-2 victory. He is only the second man to ever beat Roger Federer in a Grand Slam final (Rafa being the first).

Now, considering how closely you all follow tennis and my posts specifically, I am sure you've already noticed this, but I thought I would point it out before anyone else did. This is what I said in my blog post written at the beginning of the US Open regarding the newly crowned Champion Juan Martin Del Potro:

"You've never heard of him. Though he's been arguably the second best player this summer (behind Murray) and has a chance to go far, he ain't gonna win it."

I'm an idiot. That said, the 20 year-old Argentine simply played out of his mind. It took him 3 sets or so to forget that he was playing arguably the best player in the history of the sport in the largest stadium on the planet for the biggest title of his life, but once he got over that little hurdle, he won it handily.

I believe in the news biz they call this "A Correction"

A lot has developed since my first post on the US Open, most of it simply serving to display how much I suck at predicting the outcome.

The last great American hope, Andy Roddick, made a shockingly early exit to the not-so-great American hope, John Isner. Unsurprisingly, Isner promptly received a good ol' fashioned tennis beating at the hands of Fernando Verdasco. So Isner, the last American left in the draw, took out the United States' only real chance at winning before exiting in the next round (why do you hate America John? Why!?).

Adding insult to injury, this US Open marks the first time EVER in the 128 year history of the tournament that an American man has not advanced to at least the quarterfinals. Great.

The good news is, we aren't the only fading world superpower in pain. Great Britain's only hope (and my pick for the finals), Andy Murray, made an early exit today against Marin Cilic in straight sets. That means that the only two men with s realistic shot at stopping Federer in his quest for 6 straight U.S. Open titles have been stopped in their tracks.

So let's do a quick recap of who we have in the Quarterfinals (Number in parenthesis represents that players seed/ranking for the tournament):

(1) Roger Federer v. (12) Robin Soderling

• Rematch of this year's French Open final with the same result: Fed in 3
  

(4) Novak Djokovic v. (10) Fernando Verdasco

• Verdasco is a great hard court player (made the semifinals at the Australian in January), but I don't think he's playing with as much fire as earlier in the year: Djokovic in 4
  

(2) Rafael Nadal v. (11) Fernando Gonzalez

• This an interesting match...Rafa is, well Rafa so you've gotta favor him, but Gonzalez has proven to be a great hard courter (most notably by reaching the finals of the Australian Open in 2007). That combined with the reports of Rafa's abdominal strain could spell intrigue. Considering Rafa's battle-back destruction of a sharp-looking Monfils in the last round: Nadal in...5?
  

(6) Juan Martin Del Potro v. (16) Marin Cilic

• Though, in an earlier post, I said of Del Potro, "he ain't gonna win it", and I continue to stand by that statement, I am convinced now that he has a series chance of a finals appearance. That, added to the fact that Cilic has had his fun in taking out World #2 Andy Murray in the last round: Del Potro in 4.
  

So, in revising my predictions, my new call: Nadal v. Federer in the final, Fed in 4.

"Open" for business...see what I did there?

Yes, it is indeed that time of year again. Screw football, I'm talking about a real sport: Tennis. Well, real to me.

The U.S. Open, the last of the four "majors" of tennis, is indeed upon us. It couldn't have come at a more exciting time either, given the current state of (men's) tennis. While I know most of you are avid followers of the sport, allow me to enlighten all those n00bs out there.

In the past calender year, the sport of (men's) tennis has been cast from it's curse of predictability into utter disarray. Let's break it
down chronologically:

• July 2008: World #2 Rafael Nadal defeats World #1 Roger Federer in an epic Wimbledon final winning his first non-French Open grand slam.
• August 2008: Rafael Nadal takes over the top spot in the rankings, unseating Roger Federer after his record-breaking run of 237 consecutive weeks at #1.
• January 2009: Rafael Nadal defeats Federer in the final of the Australian Open (the first slam of the year), confirming his status as #1.

Now, at this point, it seemed almost as if Fed's time had passed. He was undoubtedly the second best tennis player on earth, but he had hit an immovable force named Rafa. Even he thought his era had come to a close (as evidenced by his crying on court after losing the Australian Open).
Not so fast...

• May 2009: Rafael Nadal inexplicably loses in the fourth round of the French Open (a tournament at which he had NEVER lost...ever) to...Robin Soderling??? (we learn later that Rafa was battling tendonitis and ended up taking 10 weeks off) Sure enough, Roger Federer takes advantage and suddenly redeems his year by winning the only Grand Slam that had, up to that point, eluded him. In the process, he added his name to a list of only 5 men who have won all four majors in their careers and garnered his 14th grand slam titles tying the record holder Pete Sampras.
• July 2009: After Nadal pulls out due to injury, Federer reclaims his Wimbeldon title, but not before Andy Roddick puts up a monumental fight in a 5-7, 7-6 (6), 7-6 (5), 3-6, 16-14 match that goes down in history as the longest Wimbeldon final ever as measured by total games played. As a result, Fed reclaims the #1 spot in the rankings and becomes the record holder with 15 major titles to his name.
• August 2009: Nadal finally returns from injury but not at 100%. Meanwhile, Andy Murray, from Great Britain (Scotland to be exact), has a lights-out summer and claws his way to #2, dropping Nadal to #3.

So, here's where we stand as far as "contenders" for this year's open.

• #1 Fed has won the open 5 straight times and, in the year of his redemption, is looking like he's in good position to tie the record of 6 consecutive titles.
• #2 Andy Murray is having an amazing run and, after making it to the U.S. Open Final last year, wants to finish the job and has the resume to back it up (currently he has a 6-3 career record against Fed, with all 6 wins coming on hard courts).
• #3 Rafa Nadal has said himself that he does not expect to be a contender this year due to the rust he acquired during his hiatus...but is he simply lowering expectations?
• #4 Novak Djokovic has been under the radar lately but did make it to the finals of the biggest non-slam tournament leading up to the U.S. Open (Cincinnati).
• #5 Andy Roddick is in the top 5 again for the first time in years and looking for vengeance after a huge disappointment at Wimbledon. Don't be surprised if he takes Federer out in the quarterfinals this year. Each time they've played A-Rod has gotten closer and closer to victory...it's time he finally took one home.
• #6 Juan Martin Del Potro: You've never heard of him (he's the person you've never seen in the picture to the right), though he's been arguably the second best player this summer (behind Murray) and has a chance to go far, he ain't gonna win it.

Excited yet? Likely not because there's a good chance you never even got this far in the post. That said, here are my bold and not so bold calls for the Open:

1. Watch out for the 22nd seeded American Sam Querry, who hits a falling star in #8 Nikolay Davydenko in the 4th round. My prediction: Querry takes the match in 4 sets and goes on to face (and lose to) Federer in the Quarterfinals.
2. Andy Roddick hits #4 Djokovic in the Quarterfinals. My prediction: Roddick wins the match in 4 sets and hits Federer in the Semi-Finals. If he finds a way to take down Fed with the crowd behind him, he wins the whole thing...but that's a BIG "if".
3. My final call: Despite my red, white and blue blood (Go Andy!), it's a rematch of the 2008 final with the same result...Roger over Andy Murray in the final (4 sets). Long live the king.